# Day 52 — YouTube 自动生成字幕（AUTO_GENERATED）

覆盖训练段 000–10 分钟。已去滚动字幕重叠。ASR 生成可能含识别错误。

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GenAI in India and the title is a job crosswinds and productivity tailwinds. Absolute delight to welcome him on the I'll welcome him on the show to talk about that and more. Santanu, great having you. Thank you so much for taking the time out and being with us today. Neeraj here. Neeraj here. Good morning to you. And and we're going to go to your report in a bit, but I just want to talk about two issues to start off with. And before the policy, since we are

talking about uh monsoon and what's happening to inflation, agrarian economy, etc. Is there a stress Santanu to your mind or with the rainfall being what it is in the recent past for India at least that part is taken care of. How do you see it? it? >> Yeah, thank you for having me. Look, for the kharif crop, we were not of the view that this will be a major impact for the long cycle crops crops because rice and wheat inventories are very strong as we are

getting into the kharif cycle. You can have some external related risks to inflation, food inflation from let's say edible oils, but our concern was that if the rains don't really come out, you know, come come through then the reservoir levels will be low by the time you get into the rabi season, which is the more irrigated crop and you know, you can have a problem with the rabi crop if you don't have the water in the reservoirs. But it seems to us and you know, you're

you're in the earlier program also you're mentioning that it seems like the rains are catching up. The reservoirs are getting the positions are getting better than what it was earlier and therefore the risk is lower than what we were anticipating about a month month and a half back. half back. >> Okay, which is which which Okay, which is good to know. Well, of course, the proof of the pudding will be I think as the season goes away. The other piece is I I read some of

your comments post policy with interest Santanu. You are deferring any possibility of a rate hike, if I'm not wrong, all the way till December. So presumably until then no rate action by the Reserve Bank of India and I believe and I believe their comments on inflation or maybe the lack of it and growth etc. lead you to believe that that will not be the case. Would that be a fair assessment? And if there is anything else that really stood out for you in the policy because

we were scratching our heads, it didn't seem to be a really stand out announcement policy. announcement policy. >> Well, what stood out for us was it was dovish. dovish. It was the governor's statement was decidedly dovish. decidedly dovish. I think the the press conference was relatively more balanced relatively more balanced and therefore if they're mentioning that inflation is not broad-based yet. The governor mentioned governor mentioned core ex precious metals about two or three times during the speech and also after that during the press conference. And

if you think that core inflation is peaking out by by Q3 and they're coming down after that, our our sense is that there is no real urgency to tighten monetary policy in the immediate future. So we've deferred the hike call to December. It's likely that it goes to February if inflation, especially core inflation, surprises on the downside compared to what we have or where the RBI's forecasts are, which are which are quite similar. We are just a shade below a shade below the RBI on the

overall inflation forecast. So yeah, I mean I would say that, you know, risks on the horizon in terms of El Nino, in terms of obviously the geopolitical tensions with flares up again, again, in terms of what the Fed does, but our call right now is that at least up to December we are not expecting expecting monetary policy tightening action. action. >> I want to talk about this report that you put out which has to do with the implications of AI adoption and you've looked at the

workforce and you've also studied, I think, the IT services space and the implications therein. therein. You're expecting there to be a net positive in implication or impact. Can you explain that to us? >> Sure. Our point is that the adoption of GenAI and the word adoption is very important because you know, you need to diffuse it it across the economy is going to be a medium-term positive for India's macro outlook. Although the labor market effect in the interim period will be uneven. I think currently the

focus is very much only on the IT sector and services exports. There too, you have sort of differing you know, conclusions. You're seeing the very large IT firms shed jobs. We've seen about 60,000 odd jobs being shed on net from the top six IT companies. Whereas if you look at the overall tech workforce data from NASSCOM, they've actually added 0.7 million jobs in the last 3 years. So all of this is over the last 3 years. And therefore the the labor market effect in our mind

is uneven. uneven. But more so even if you look at services exports, while exports, while the the large tech companies are growing revenues at sort of pre-pandemic trend, you know, all of us know that services exports on aggregate especially led by the GCCs the GCCs is materially higher. Now clearly that kind of growth rate cannot sustain. But services export which was earlier at about 7% of GDP in the pre-pandemic period is now at about 10 and a half 11% of GDP. of GDP. And then if

you think about the diffusion of AI beyond this sector, which is not really talk being talked about right now, but beyond the sector in the other knowledge services, be it education, be it media, entertainment, financial services and so on. We think the net impact of that from the complementarity that AI gives to to the workforce is going to outweigh the labor market you know, outcomes that you will have in the interim period and it's going to be a net productivity positive. That is you're going to

produce more dollars dollars likely at the same or maybe a little bit less number of people, but the overall net growth impact in our view is going to be positive. to be positive. >> Shantanu, good morning. You know, you know, that's an interesting point you make and when you're estimating that AI could probably what add good 4/10 to 8/10 percentage points to labor productivity growth is what I read. How significant does that actually become in the context of India's long-term GDP growth number one? And two,

two, what needs to actually happen for India to go ahead and capture this upper end of that productivity gain versus taking the lower end? >> Right. So, I think the first point is as I as I mentioned earlier, adoption. If the adoption is only in certain sectors, I mean, when you look at the overall economy, you're going to have some amount of substitution, some amount of complementarity, and some sectors are going to be unaffected. I mean, if you're not really using technology in your job, your

job, you you are you're basically out of you know, benefiting from AI, so to say. But, if the adoption is only in sectors or in job functions which is getting substituted, then the labor market impact will dominate impact will dominate beyond the complementarity, right? Because you're not really get the complementarity impact and the positive impact on growth. impact on growth. So, the adoption and the diffusion of AI at a relatively cheap cost for the overall economy is very, very important. And in that, we point out

two key points, which is points, which is we need the infrastructure to be there. And to be fair, some part of it is happening. You can see the data centers, you know, including some of the global companies wanting to put up data centers in India. in India. But, along with that, you'll have power requirement, you'll have the cooling requirement, and so on. So, are Do we have the physical infra- infrastructure capacity uh for for that to manifest overall in the economy? And lastly, this has been

a concern with overall services exports for us over the last two or three years, and less under India's control, which is that if the exporting destinations become turn more protectionist about services exports, like you've seen uh in in goods or merchandising export in the last two or three years, three years, that can be an impediment or or sort of a headwind for India's services export growth overall, rather than, you know, AI coming in and completely disrupting uh India's services export. So, that's sort of the medium-term

view that we are taking. >> Okay. Okay. Uh Shantanu, the the the the the the Okay. Uh just broadly, because there are too many sectors attached to this, right? And understand the productivity gain argument completely. But, is even before the AI issue, if I can call it an issue, started, there was always this talk of whether the quantum of workforce entering into the workforce age every single year in India will find adequate jobs or no? If IT doesn't provide that white-collar jobs at scale that it

used to pre-AI, to pre-AI, even if IT were to grow, uh are is manufacturing as a sector that adequate alternative for providing high-quality jobs in India? And is Does India have no other option but for a manufacturing renaissance for the large labor workforce to find jobs in the first place? place? >> Right. So, two parts to this. One, I'll be careful about IT. It's about 2% of the overall non-agricultural workforce in India. in India. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Uh it It been a significant provider

of of jobs and relatively higher paying jobs in the last uh uh two decades, I would say. Uh and and maybe the the bottom end of that will start getting uh lesser in terms of a growth impact going forward. So, it'll flatline or possibly decline. decline. And some of that you you've already seen, as I was mentioning in the large uh IT IT companies.

# Day 52 — 火山引擎 录音文件识别（volc.seedasr.auc）

豆包大模型 ASR，异步接口。可能含识别错误，仅供听力对照。

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Genia in India and the title is a job crosswinds and productivity tailwinds.

Absolute delight to welcome him on the.

I'll welcome him on the show to talk about that and more.

Santanu, great having you.

Thank you so much for taking the time out and being with us today.

Nida Jair, good morning to you and.

And we are going to go to your report in a bit, but I just want to talk about two issues to start off with.

Uh, and before the policy since we are talking about uh, monsoon and, uh, what's happening to inflation, agrarian economy, et cetera, uh, is that a stress, Santanu, to your mind or with the rainfall being what it is in the recent past for India, at least that part is taken care of. How do you see it? Yeah, thank you for.

Having me.

Um, look, for the kharif crop, we were not of the view that this will be a major impact for the long cycle crops because rice and wheat inventories are very strong.

As we are getting into the kharif cycle, you can have some external related risks to inflation, food inflation from, let's say, edible oils.

But our concern was that if the rains don't really come out, you know, uh, come, come through, then the reservoir levels will be low by the time you get into the Rugby season, which is the more irrigated crop.

And, you know, you can have a problem with the Rugby, uh, crop if you don't have the water, uh, in the reservoirs.

But it seems to us, and you know, you're, you're in the earlier program also, you're mentioning that it seems like the rains are catching up.

The reservoirs are getting, the positions are getting better than what it was earlier, and therefore the risk is lower than what we were anticipating about a month, month and a half back.

Okay, which is which, which, okay, which is good to know.

When, of course, the proof of the pudding will be, I think, as the season goes away.

The other pieces.

I read some of your comments post policy with interest.

Santanu, you are deferring any possibility of a rate hike, if I'm not wrong, all the way till December.

So presumably, until then, no rate action by the Reserve Bank of India.

And I believe their comments on inflation or maybe the lack of it and growth, etcetera, lead you to believe that, that will not be the case.

Would that be a fair assessment?

And if there is anything else that really stood out for you in the policy, because we were scratching our heads.

It didn't seem to be a really stand out announcement policy.

Well, what stood out for us was it was dovish.

It was the governor statement was decidedly dovish.

I think the, the press conference was relatively more balanced.

Uh, and therefore, if they are mentioning that, uh, inflation is not broad based yet the governor mentioned, uh, Core X precious metals about two or three times uh, during the speech and also after that during the press conference.

Uh, and if you think that, uh, core inflation is speaking out by, by Q3, uh, and, and they're coming down after that, uh, our, our sense is that there is no real urgency to, uh, tighten monetary policy, uh, in the immediate future.

So we have deferred the hike call to December.

It's likely that it goes to February if inflation, especially core inflation surprises, uh, on the downside, uh, compared to what we have or where the RBI's forecasts are, which are, which are quite similar, we are just a shade below, uh, the RBI on the overall inflation forecast. So, yeah, I, I mean, I would.

Say that, you know, risks on the horizon in terms of El Nino, uh, in terms of obviously geopolitical tensions if it flares up again, uh, in terms of what the Fed does.

But our call right now is that at least up to December, we are not expecting, um, uh, expecting monetary policy, uh, tightening action.

I want to talk about this report that you put out, which has to do with the implications of AI adoption.

And you've looked at the workforce and you've also studied, I think, the it services space and the implications therein.

You're expecting there to be a net positive implication or impact.

Can you explain that to us?

Sure, our point is that the adoption of Gen AI and the word adoption is very important because, you know, you need to diffuse it, it across the economy is going to be a medium term positive for India's macro outlook.

Although the labor market effect in the interim period will be uneven.

I think currently the focus is very much only on the it sector and services exports.

There too.

You have sort of differing, uh, you know, conclusions.

Uh, you're seeing the very large ID firms shed jobs.

We've seen about 60,000 odd jobs being shed on net from the top 6 ID companies, whereas if you look at the overall tech workforce data from Mascom, uh, they have actually added point seven million jobs in the last three years. So all of this is over the last.

Three years.

And therefore the, the labor market effect in our mind is uneven, but more so even if you look at services exports while the the large tech companies are growing revenues at sort of pre pandemic trend.

Uh, you know, all of us know that services exports on aggregate, especially LED by the gccs, uh, is materially higher.

Now clearly that kind of growth rate cannot sustain, but uh, services export, which was earlier at about 7% of GDP in the pre pandemic period is now at about ten and a half, 11% of GDP.

And then if you think about the diffusion of AI beyond this sector, uh, which is not really talk being talked about right now, but beyond the sector in the other knowledge services, be it education.

Be it media, entertainment, financial services and so on.

We think the net impact of that from the complementarity that AI gives to, to the workforce is going to outweigh the labor market, uh, you know, outcomes that you will have in the interim period.

Uh, and it's going to be a net productivity positive that is you're going to produce more dollars, likely at the same or maybe a little bit less number of people, but the overall net growth impact in our view is going to be positive.

Shantanu, good morning.

You know, that's an interesting point you make.

And when you're estimating that AI could probably what, add good 4/10 to 8/10 percentage points to labor productivity growth is what I read.

How significant does that actually become in the context of India's long term GDP growth, No..

1?

And 2, what needs to actually happen for India to go ahead and capture this upper end of that productivity gain versus taking the lower end, right?

So I think the first point is as I as I mentioned earlier, adoption, uh, if the adoption is only in certain sectors, I mean, when you look at the overall economy, you're going to have some amount of substitution.

Some amount of complementarity and some sectors are going to be unaffected.

I mean, if you're not really using technology in your job, you, you are, you're basically out of, you know, benefiting from AI, so to say.

But if the adoption is only in sectors or in job functions, which is getting substituted, then the labor market impact will dominate, uh, beyond the complementarity, right?

Because you'll not really get the complementarity impact and the positive impact on growth.

So the adoption and the diffusion of AI at a relatively cheap cost for the overall economy is very, very important.

And in that, we point out two key points, which is we need the infrastructure to be there.

And to be fair, some part of it is happening.

You can see the data centers, uh, you know, including some of the global companies wanting to put up data centers in India.

But along with that, you'll have power requirement, you have the cooling requirement and so on.

So are, do we have the physical infrastructure capacity, uh, for, for that to manifest overall in the economy?

And lastly, this has been a concern with overall services exports for us over the last two or three years and less under India's control, which is that if the exporting destinations become turn more protectionist about services exports like you've seen.

Uh in, in goods or merchandising export in the last two or three years that can be an impediment or, or sort of a headwind for India services export growth overall rather than, you know, AI coming in and completely disrupting AI India's services export.

So that's sort of the medium term view that we are taking.

Okay, okay.

Uh, Santanu, the, the, the, okay, uh, just broadly because there are too many sectors attached to this, right?

And understand the productivity gain argument completely, but is even before the AI issue, if I can call it an issue started, there was always this talk of whether the quantum of workforce entering into the workforce age every single year in India will find adequate jobs or no.

If it doesn't provide that white collar jobs at scale that it used to pre AI, even if it were to grow.

Are is manufacturing as a sector that adequate alternative for providing high quality jobs in India?

And is, does India have no other option but for a manufacturing renaissance for the large labor workforce to find jobs in the first place, right?

So two parts to this.

One, I'll be careful about it.

It's about 2% of the overall non agricultural workforce in India, okay?

Uh, it has been a significant provider of, of jobs and relatively higher paying jobs in the last, uh, two decades, I would say.

Uh, and, and maybe the, the bottom end of that will start getting, uh, uh, lesser, uh, in terms of a growth impact going forward.

So it'll flatline or possibly decline and some of that you, you've already seen, as I was mentioning in the large it, it companies.